The surge of right-wing populism in East-Central Europe is often portrayed as an unforeseen shift from the earlier post-1989 liberalization path. The 鈥渋lliberal transformation鈥� narrative underlines stark differences between the policy arsenals that informed democratization and marketization reforms in the early 1990s and those fueling current 鈥�.鈥� Yet this framing conceals the analytical maneuver of disconnecting the political sphere from its socioeconomic counterpart, thereby limiting democracy to the former and defining democratic participation based on electoral competition.
It was precisely this separation, which at the dawn of post-communist transformation, tended to align democratization not with leveling erstwhile power and wealth disparities, but with by the lingering elements of Soviet bureaucracy. Conceived in this way, democratization was deemed to be an engine of market reforms. Insofar as much of the 鈥渢ransitology鈥� scholarship operated with a parochial 鈥渄emocracy鈥� versus 鈥渁uthoritarianism鈥� dichotomy, it repeatedly obscured authoritarian tendencies in consolidating democratic systems.
In the recently published article , I argue that the corpus on 鈥渁uthoritarian neoliberalism鈥� is well-positioned to instigate a much-needed departure from this externalization of 鈥減olitical鈥� and 鈥渟ocioeconomic鈥� spheres when revisiting the intricacies of post-communist transformation in general and monetary reforms in the Baltic states in particular.
Bents of Authoritarianism and Baltic Exchange-Rate Regimes
As is well known, the unearths the manifestations of authoritarianism in the processes related to the reconfiguration of state and institutional power to insulate certain policies and institutional practices from social and political dissent. This focus on the technocratic forms of authoritarianism 鈥� where the presence of democratic institutions in part camouflages the practices associated with the removal of key decision-making areas from popular control 鈥� has helped scholars dissect .
While the propensity to substitute the forms of elusive compromise between capital and labor for an outright exclusion and marginalization of the latter has been particularly evident since the onset of the 2007-2008 global economic and financial crisis, the displays of authoritarian bents in the practices of neoliberal governance are, of course, not a recent phenomenon. Yet, this acknowledgement does not warrant the dismissal of the notion as such. On the contrary, if deployed as an 鈥渋nvestigative prism鈥�, authoritarian neoliberalism can be productively used to study earlier periods of restructuring that reveal a variety of disciplinary strategies to promote state interventions geared at 鈥渆mancipating鈥� the market.
One such case study is the construction of monetary orders in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania following the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Institutionalized during the Baltic states鈥� departures from the Rouble zone, those monetary orders were predicated on currency board arrangements (CBAs) and aimed to combat inflation through a foreign exchange anchor that subordinated economic policies to the priority of exchange rate stability and a steady inflow of capital. In the article, I argue that the scaffolding of CBA-based monetary regimes amounted to the political project based on the necessities to safeguard the implementation of currency and monetary reforms from public contestation and input, delegate policymaking to technocratic preferences and invoke moralization about capitalism as a legitimizing device.
Focused on curbing inflation and eliminating fiscal deficits, the post-communist 鈥渟tabilization reforms鈥� were an integral component in the Shock therapy framework. The state had to introduce mechanisms allowing prices to reach their equilibrium values, impose a hard budget constraint, promote private ownership, establish a steady exchange rate and efficient monetary authority, initiate banking sector reforms, and dismantle intra-Soviet trade by securing European Community free trade agreements. In the Baltic states, these tasks had to be accomplished amid widespread disruptions in trade and finances, loss of export markets, and dysfunctional payment systems due to their intent to exit the Rouble zone and introduce their own national currency units.
Originating in the British colonial trade policies in , currency boards denote an extreme version of a pegged exchange rate regime. They establish a fixed peg to a foreign anchor currency and mandate an unlimited and unconditional conversion of national currency into foreign 鈥渞eserve currency鈥�. This arrangement is underpinned by the requirement that the central bank鈥檚 holdings of foreign-exchange reserves be equivalent to the domestic components of a respective state鈥檚 monetary base. Suchlike fixed exchange rate regimes were a rarity in the post-communist orbit, with CBAs introduced only in and .
On a general plane, Baltic CBAs attested to the basic prerequisites for a neoliberal modality of regulating capitalist social relations of production and exchange. In the eyes of state managers, 鈥減olitical consensus鈥� amounted to a form of 鈥渢imid democratization鈥� and the launch of reforms had to coincide with the Schmittian 鈥減eriod of extraordinary politics鈥�. Democracy was thus enveloped in a euphemism for sophisticated forms of authoritarianism.
Trajectories of Monetary Restructuring in Estonia and Latvia
The article identifies the authoritarian bents in state-driven monetary restructuring in the mandates for planning, executing, and concluding 鈥渟tabilization reforms鈥� given to Estonia鈥檚 Monetary Reform Committee (MRC), Lithuania鈥檚 Litas Committee (LC), and Latvia鈥檚 Currency Reform Committee (CRC) in March 1991, November 1991, and May 1992, respectively. These state entities were comprised of three individuals (typically including the Prime Minister, the Governor of the Central Bank, and an 鈥渋ndependent鈥� advisor) and worked to prevent the Baltic Supreme Councils (parliaments) from overseeing reform trajectories.
In Estonia and Latvia, the three-member conclaves had the power to issue decrees, considered to have the same status as parliamentary decisions regarding any reform-related issue. They could determine the time of monetary reform and policies related to taxes, debt, securities, pensions, wages, and foreign trade. For example, even if the law on the CRC鈥檚 establishment obligated the latter to report to Latvia鈥檚 Supreme Council, Committee鈥檚 resolutions were legally binding. There was even a mechanism to overturn the legislative acts in place.
Insulated from parliamentary control, the MRC in Estonia and the CRC in Latvia could present inflation targeting as a panacea of restructuring and a value-free policy objective. The moralizing rhetoric about the necessity of reform was deployed to conceal its social costs. For the governor of the BoE, Kallas, 鈥渙rdinary people鈥檚 discontent and disappointment鈥� were the barriers in 鈥淓stonia鈥檚 struggle for democracy and independence鈥�. Thus, the success of monetary reform necessitated a 鈥渂reak with the socialist values鈥� of distribution and equalization to be achieved through a hard-fought 鈥渘ational struggle鈥�.
The opposition to the reform course was eradicated in part through the adoption of , passed in February 1992 and July 1994. These laws rendered a significant portion of Estonia and Latvia鈥檚 populations stateless overnight, barring certain individuals from property ownership, voting, or standing in national elections. The legislation silenced popular resistance from non-ethnic Estonian working-class groups. Latvia鈥檚 similar nationality law, though passed months after monetary reform, left a quarter of the country鈥檚 population stateless.
The concentration of power within the state bureaucracy and the central bank, alongside the quashing of opposition through constitutional means, combined with significant financial aid from the IMF, contributed to the relatively unchallenged nature of Latvia鈥檚 reform. After the CRC鈥檚 decisions in May 1992, the transitional currency (Latvian Rouble) was introduced, coexisting with the national unit 鈥� the Lats 鈥� starting from March 1993. By March 1994, the Lats was pegged to the IMF鈥檚 Special Drawing Rights鈥� (SDRs) basket of currencies. The Bank of Latvia (BoLv) retained conventional central bank functions (setting rates and serving as lender of last resort). However, due to minimal exchange rate fluctuations against the SDRs and substantial reserves, the monetary system effectively operated as a de facto CBA.
Estonia鈥檚 route to monetary restructuring was less direct. In 1991, discussions arose about tackling the issue of monetary overhang 鈥� sizable Rouble deposits from entities and individuals. The dilemma was whether to swiftly adopt an independent currency or phase it in via vouchers. This produced a clash between the Forest Committee, representing export-focused manufacturing, and the MRC and BoE, favoring rentiers and foreign investors. To gain clout, the latter group invited Jeffrey Sachs to Estonia. Sachs endorsed the Argentinian CBA in meetings with BoE officials, the government, and the IMF mission. This arrangement was deemed transparent and trustworthy. It proposed to bypass the absence of monetary expertise and address credit demands by making them unfeasible. The CBA required an exchange rate to be supported by foreign exchange reserves. Currency issuance depended on obtaining foreign reserves through export surpluses or foreign loans. Backed by the IMF mission, the Sachs-Hansson Plan was executed in June 1992. The Kroon replaced the Rouble and its exchange rate was fixed to the Deutschmark. With the domestic money supply backed by gold and foreign reserves, the BoE lost the authority to set interest rates and provide credit to the government, commercial banks, or enterprises.
Alternative Route: Lithuania
The Lithuanian case departs from conspicuous authoritarian statecraft in the Baltic north. This idiosyncrasy stems from the balance of social forces in the country where the breeding ground for monetary reform (and CBA) was located in a local think tank, the Lithuanian Free Market Institute (LFMI), rather than directly inside the state apparatus (LC) or the central bank. Further differences include the LC鈥檚 limited mandate (focused on issuance dates of the national unit, the Rouble鈥檚 withdrawal, and setting the Rouble-Litas exchange rate), the parliament鈥檚 power to dissolve the committee, and ongoing political disagreements within the LC. On the one hand, these unique institutional aspects explain why Lithuania鈥檚 monetary reform took twice as long to implement. On the other, the Lithuanian case demonstrates that reform outcomes need not rely on authoritarian neoliberal practices by default.
Bereft of direct control over state apparatus, the group backing the currency board for Lithuania had to rely on contingencies to push through the preferred exchange rate arrangement. Conditions for a frontal attack were generated when following the withdrawal of interim currency (talonas) and the introduction of a new national unit (the Litas) under a managed float, the BoLt chose not to replicate exchange-rate-based stabilization programs underway in Estonia and Latvia. Instead of relying on a nominal exchange-rate fixity as an instrument for reducing inflation, the Bank sought to reduce the monetary base by restraining credit for the government鈥檚 budget deficit and keeping control over the exchange rate.
However, as the Litas appreciated in the second half of 1993, the Lithuanian Federation of Industrialists accused the BoLt of engendering an 鈥渦nstable and unpredictable environment鈥�, urging for a lowered and fixed exchange rate. Export-oriented national manufacturers鈥� preference for a weak currency reflected the election pledge of the Democratic Labor Party to stimulate production and output but placed the government in sharp conflict with the BoLt 鈥� seeking to consolidate its mandate over the conduct of independent monetary policy.
The clash between the government and the central bank accelerated the drive to reinvigorate the CBA campaign. Despite collaborative endeavors by the LFMI, the IMF, and a select group of economists, strong opposition emerged on the verge of the parliamentary vote on the 鈥淟aw on the Credibility of Litas.鈥� This opposition united economists from the Bank, ministries of Finance, Economy, and Foreign Affairs, Vilnius University鈥檚 Faculty of Economics, nationalist MPs, and the Association of Commercial Banks. Parliament鈥檚 approval of the law in March 1994 hinged on Lithuania鈥檚 Prime Minister鈥檚 ability to threaten the President with government resignation if the law was rejected. After establishing the US dollar as the anchor currency, Lithuania initiated CBA operations, ensuring full support of legal tender through foreign reserves, and diminishing the central bank鈥檚 role in monetary policy.
Legacies of Baltic Currency Boards
Born into varying institutional contexts and diverse national social dynamics, Baltic CBAs laid the foundation for externally oriented capital accumulation regimes. Notwithstanding mixed opinions within the neoliberal consensus on fixed exchange rates, CBAs earned 鈥渃redibility鈥� due to their commitment to peg maintenance, clear tasks, and low risks. However, claims that these policy arrangements served Baltic 鈥渘ational interests鈥� by placing decision-making in an independent monetary authority鈥檚 hands are . As shown in the article, the introduction of CBAs favored forces profiting from rent, interest, dividends, and foreign investments. International financial institutions and rating agencies also praised CBAs, which complemented fiscal restraint, privatization through foreign direct investment (FDI), and openness to capital inflows.
The CBAs were particularly lauded for their role in mitigating policy uncertainty and currency devaluation concerns that led to substantial FDI inflows. From 1989 to 1998, per capita FDI was notably higher in the Baltic trio compared to other transition states. After joining the European Union (EU) in 2004, private investments boosted Baltic economies, driving annual growth rates around 8% of GDP. However, much investment went into the non-tradeable sector (real estate, construction), leading to external trade deficits that did not enhance export sector competitiveness. Exchange rate arrangements from the 1990s prevented typical market responses to current account deficits, contributing to an when the 2008 credit crunch hit.
In conclusion, the article praises the effectiveness of “authoritarian neoliberalism” as an analytical prism, while also stressing the need to uncover its historical manifestations in East-Central Europe. By showcasing a broad spectrum of governance methods used to achieve similar reform results, I advise caution against potentially stretching the concept too far. This ensures that its explanatory power, which is applicable in two out of the three studied cases, remains intact.
Jokubas Salyga is Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley. He tweets at .
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