By Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan (St. John鈥檚 University) and Tarron Khemraj (New College of Florida)
In May 2016, economist Kenneth Rogoff that central banks in emerging markets should add gold to their reserves. Rogoff stated 鈥渢hat a shift in emerging markets toward accumulating gold would help the international financial system function more smoothly and benefit everyone.鈥� Despite initial disagreement, we find there may actually be some justification for this view in a recent .Read More »
When it rains, it pours. For emerging markets, the downpour has come in the form of credit rating downgrades by the big three global ratings companies. Fitch, Moody鈥檚, and S&P took a record聽聽negative rating actions on emerging market sovereign and government-related entities in 2016. Emerging economies are right to be concerned. With a 鈥榞ood鈥� credit rating (AAA), a sovereign state can borrow at very low rates of interest from investors. A poor rating could force states to pay significantly higher borrowing costs. Rating downgrades could have negative ripple effects throughout the affected economies, raising the cost of borrowing for banks and firms, and, in turn, consumers.
Infrastructure projects, business ideas, and consumer credit extensions, become unprofitable due to the higher cost of credit to banks, businesses, consumers, and governments. If a country is downgraded to 鈥榡unk status鈥� (more formally known as 鈥榥on-investment-grade鈥� or 鈥榮peculative-grade鈥�), it risks the mass exodus of investors from its bond markets. As the cost of borrowing for governments increases, this can lead to a dangerous downward spiral as borrowing and spending dries up business and consumer activity declines.
Getting back on course
So what is the best set of policies for emerging markets to recover their credit ratings? On one side are economists who argue for 鈥榓usterity鈥�. In their view, recovering from a ratings downgrade requires sharp reductions in state spending, even if this results in poor conditions in the short term. The benefits are twofold: It can reduce inflation and prices, thereby helping restore a country鈥檚 price competitiveness in international markets; and it can enhance the credibility of a government when it comes to containing profligate spending.
Former British Prime Minister David Cameron called this philosophy 鈥樷��. The problem is that there is not much evidence to聽聽this idea. The EU enforced austerity among its member states in response to the 2007 financial crisis, until it helped propel a 鈥樷�� recession in 2011/12. Following this largely unsuccessful adventure with austerity, the EU turned towards more pro-growth policies, which supported expansions in infrastructure and fixed-capital investment, with notable success.Read More »
This July and August, I led an international group of experts in preparing an Economic Report on the role of the BRICS countries (Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa) in the world economy and international development. 聽The was commissioned as an input to the that took place in early September 2017 in Xiamen, China.
It surveys the BRICS countries鈥� sizable contribution to global growth, trade and investment, evaluates the prospects for this to continue in the future, and explores the possible role that these countries can play in bolstering the global economy, in reshaping international economic arrangements and in contributing to the and to international development generally. An important conclusion in the report is that continued BRICS growth as well as policy initiatives can substantially benefit other developing countries (the report uses the IMF category of Emerging Market and Developing Countries, or EMDCs) 鈥� and developed countries too. 聽I will 聽be pleased if the report will be circulated widely, and welcome all reactions.Read More »
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